I hope to make this a weekly column to discuss what the LeanTossup NFL model is showing for all of the NFL games on the slate. I will discuss what the model is saying, and add to that some human logic, as a fan, and a bettor of Football games, and to clean up any mistakes I see the model making. So let’s get to it:
Thursday Night Football
Tampa Bay (-7) at Philadelphia
Final Score: Tampa Bay 28-22
Model Projection: Tampa Bay 31-18
So the model got the bad end of a backdoor cover here. It’s sad to start the week out this way, but we’ll live. Also if Tampa Bay had ended the game on a field goal as they marched down the field, the model would have had the correct score for them.
Saturday
Miami (-3) at Jacksonville (in London)
Model Projection: Jacksonville 27-17
I would be a little careful with this game. It is being played in London, which takes away any home field advantage, and we don’t know to what degree the Jaguars have given up on their embattled Head Coach, Urban Meyer. However, the Dolphins have not looked good so far this season. Even with Tua on the field. In the first game they barely held on to beat the Patriots, and then had three straight horrible showings with Tua on IR. It’s a weird spot for both teams. The model projects 206 rushing yards for the Jaguars here, so taking the over on Robinson’s Rushing yard prop (73.5, +105) might not be a bad idea, considering the Dolphins have been weak at defending the run (and pass). Trevor Lawrence anytime TD might not be bad either, as he has run the ball in from the goal line in their last 2 games, and seems to be a huge part of their goal line package.
Green Bay (5) at Chicago
Model Projection: Green Bay 24-11
The model doesn’t like Chicago here, and looking at their stat line the last few weeks completely explains why. This game appears to be pretty ugly. However, I do like Justin Fields over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at +205. If Green Bay gets out to a lead, I could see Green Bay giving out a garbage time TD or two, which makes the spread dangerous to bet, but the Bears getting two passing touchdowns is a bit safer.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Detroit
Model Projection: Cincinnati 30-16
The model loves Cincinnati here. It’s important to note that the model also liked Cincinnati last week against Green Bay as well. However, it’s very arguable that the Bengals should have won that game last week, so I don’t think the model is showing something too crazy here. The spread appears short due to Detroit having two near losses in the last two weeks on last second field goals. I would go after this with Bengals props, as the model has Burrow at 2.3 expected passing touchdowns, and the Bengals with 143 yards rushing.
Houston at Indianapolis (-10)
Model Projection: Indianapolis 33-8
This is very likely a model overreaction here. Houston rookie Davis Mills just had one of the best games for a starting rookie QB this season, but the model uses season long stats. Specifically, for Mills, that includes the game against Buffalo, where he only threw for 87 yards. I don’t want to mess with the spread for this game, as the Colts could just blow the Texans out here, but Davis Mills over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +190/200 seems really good, especially against a Colts team that allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for over 400 yards against them on Monday Night Football.
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at New York Giants
Model Projection: Rams 31-22
That 22 score for the Giants is a bit misleading, as the model actually has them at 21.7 average points (over 1000 sims). For this reason I don’t love the spread in this game. It’s not that I don’t think the Rams can win by 10 points, it’s just that the model doesn’t see much value in it. The better value is Matthew Stafford over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns at +170, as the Rams love to pass due to the injuries to their running backs. The model also has Stafford throwing for 304 yards. Additionally, whoever is starting for the Giants, you might want to bet their passing yardage over, as the model (using Daniel Jones as the Giants starter) projects 276 passing yards. Since we don’t know who is starting yet there is no line, but at game time that could be a cool value play.
Kansas City (-6.5) at Washington
Model Projection: Kansas City 24-21
I’m not exactly sure what the model is doing here, as it seems weird that the Chiefs would only score 24 points against a Washington defense that has not lived up to their stats from last year. However, sometimes the model knows best, so I’m leaving this game alone. No props or anything.
Minnesota (-1.5) at Carolina
Model Projection: Minnesota 19.3-19.1
I felt the need to include the decimals in this one to not have it show up as a tie. The model thinks this game will just be ugly. I tend to agree with it. If this game gets to Vikings -2 or -2.5 I’ll take the points with Carolina. If not, just watch the last Monday afternoon game
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore (-2.5)
Model Projection: Baltimore 34-33
Yeah, this game is going to be close. I bet this on Sunday night at Chargers +3.5, and now there is much less value on the Chargers. If this goes back to 3, bet the Chargers, if not hold. There might be some good live betting options if one team falls behind. Also a good option is Justin Herbert over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns at around +160 or so (It’s not live in my book for some reason). The model projects 3.5 passing Touchdowns for Herbert, so this is a good bet. Also, we have Lamar’s passing touchdown line at 2.3, so possible value on him over 1.5 passing touchdowns as well. We project the Ravens to have 2.1 rushing touchdowns as well, so it’s possible Lamar gets a rushing touchdown in this game as well.
Arizona at Cleveland (-3)
Model Projection: Cleveland 26-23
Not a lot of value in this line. The model expects the Browns to win, but basically the line in the books. If the Cardinals get to +3.5 then there is some value on them, but it’s still not great. The Cardinals are the only undefeated team left, and they had a lot of problems last week against San Francisco’s rushing attack. This could be a Cleveland blowout, especially if Kyler’s shoulder is hurting him again (as he seemed to indicate in the game last week). The model projects Kyler to throw for about 328 yards though, with 2.9 passing touchdowns, so those props might be worth it to bet.
Las Vegas and Denver (-3.5)
Model Projection: Denver 24-19
Although the model likes Denver here, I’m going with the Raiders. The Raiders have played terribly the last two weeks as the scandal involving Gruden has been playing out. Now that he is gone, they might get back to playing at a similar level to earlier in the season. Conversely, Denver has also played poorly the last two weeks after their hot start. I think this game will be close, but I’ll take the better Quarterback (Derek Carr) with the points.
Dallas (-3.5) at New England
Model Projection: Dallas 29-25
I’m kinda surprised the model is coming in right at the books betting line. Although the model thinks the Patriots get 25 points here, I’m struggling to figure out how, considering they only scored 25 against Houston last week. The model also has Mac Jones throwing for 312 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns, which seems really high. I would probably not touch this game, but I can’t help but think the bet here is with the Cowboys.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5)
Model Projection: Seattle 21.5-19.3
We’re taking Seattle here. One of my favourite practices in the NFL is taking the underdog on Sunday night. When I first saw this line I tried to grab it, but since Sunday night this line has been moving like a freight train towards the Steelers. That alone gives me concern. It’s concerning to me that people are piling on the Steelers after finally winning their second game of the season against a fading fast Broncos team, which actually had a chance to tie the game in the last seconds of the 4th quarter. One week ago people were talking about if the Steelers should bench Ben Rothlisberger. Now they’re laying 5 points with him. We’re going with Seahawks Moneyline too.
Monday Night Football
Buffalo (-5.5) at Tennessee
Model Projection: Buffalo 24-15
Winning this game by 9 points (or more likely 10 points, based on the fact that it’s easier for the Titans to get 14 than 15) makes a lot of sense for the Bills. After losing Week 1 to the Steelers, they have gone on a rampage, most recently demolishing Kansas City at home (which the model projected as well, just not to that scale).