With ESL Pro League and it’s historic finish for Heroic all wrapped up, the CSGO world moves onto the 10th event in the Intel Grand Slam and DreamHacks first Masters level tournament of the year, DreamHack Masters Spring 2021. Starting this today is the opening round for both groups, plus the upper bracket semi’s and lower bracket round 1 for group A, with a packed schedule to get in 12 games in a single day. We’ll breakdown here what our model says the results will most likely be and what our predictions are for the coming matches.
Group A
Gambit vs. Fiend
This matchup should be a really easy 2-0 win for Gambit as they are currently HLTV’s best ranked team and have one the best rosters today. This is fiends first S-Tier tournament and facing off against the IEM Katowice champions is definitely too tall of an order. Our model puts this match at 89% win rate for Gambit, however I’d say these odds should be higher as this match will be be almost certainly a win for Gambit.
Spirit vs. G2
There is no better word to describe this match then “tossup”. Both these rosters have incredibly capable players and the playbooks to win this match. G2 is currently higher ranked then Spirit (at 11th), sitting at 9th on the HLTV rankings, however their roster has had much inconsistencies in the last few tournaments. Our model puts this match at 50-50, with a very, very slight edge to G2, however I would say this matchup is anyone’s guess.
Na’Vi vs. mousesports
Had this match taken place 6 months ago, it might have been a close contest between these two foes. However, since mousesports has dropped chrisJ, woxic and karrigan they have been a fraction of their former selves. With Na’Vi recently dropping flamie for B1T, they look ready to take this tournament by storm. Our model puts this matchup at 60% Na’Vi, however I would say the odds are far closer to 70-80% for the them instead.
FaZe vs. Virtus.pro
Arguably the most exciting matchup of this opening round is FaZe versus Virtus.pro. These two teams both have the individual skills and IGL brains to beat each other in this head to head, however if I had to put money on it, my guess on the winner would be Virtus.pro, simply due to FaZe’s inconsistency and the freshness of their new IGL karrigan. Our model puts the odds at 52% Virtus.pro, but I personally would say that it should be closer to 60%.
Group B
Astralis vs. Extra Salt
Despite loosing Mr. Consistent himself dev1ce, to NIP, Astralis should still win this match against recent NA-South African breakout Extra Salt. “Should” however is strong word, and given how Astralis have been loosing to teams far below their theoretical skill level, we might be in for an upset. Our model puts 85% odds on an Astralis win and I would have to agree with that in theory, but again, never discount an upset with how they are playing right now.
Complexity vs. Vitality
Another one of the more exciting matches for the opening round should be a close match between the juggernauts in Complexity and the French superstars in Vitality. On a normal day, this match should be an easy Vitality win, even potentially a 2-0 for them. However with ZyWoO playing less then stellar in recent days and the benching of RpK in exchange for an untested Kyojin, I think that Vitality might have less a harder time winning this. Our model puts this at 54% Vitality win but I personally would say it’s the opposite, with Complexity having 55% odds at winning in my opinion.
Furia vs. BIG
This matchup should be a competitive one, however Furia have the edge in part thanks to the inconsistency of BIG against A-Tier teams and their profound aggression possibly being too much for BIG to handle. BIG also could win however, especially coming off a hot win at Funspark UTLI, and they have the skill to win. The model puts the odds at 52% Furia and I would have to agree as this match could realistically go either way.
PaiN vs. Heroic
Unfortunately for paiN, this match will be a very easy win for Heroic as it is very unlike to lose as the worlds #2 and recent ESL Pro League champions. The model puts the odds at only 75% win for Heroic but really this is an easy 90% win chance against paiN.
