It is a rarity that a UFC card comes around promising three Fight of Year contenders, and yet UFC 263 does just that. First, the main event rematch between reigning Middleweight king, Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya, and #3 ranked Middleweight, Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori will undoubtedly be a fast-paced affair. Both Adesanya and Vettori have promised finishes for the fight and, considering the improvements made by both men since their 2018 split decision contest, it is reasonable to believe them.
Since their last fight, Adesanya holds a record of 7-1, with his only professional loss coming to him in his last fight, a contest for the Light-heavyweight championship. This means that, despite enduring a decision loss, Adesanya remains undefeated at Middleweight.
For Vettori, his record since his last fight with Adesanya is an impressive 5-0. This record has come under fire for containing a lack of wind over ranked Middleweights, yet it is impossible to deny the improvements made by Vettori overall.
Odds currently heavily favour the champion, perhaps the least surprising thing about UFC 263 as a whole. And while Vettori holds value as a fair-sized underdog, it is difficult to pick against a man who not only weighed in 10 pounds lighter than the Light-heavyweight champion yet managed to take him to a 5 round decision. One must also consider Adesanya’s last Middleweight performance, the utter destruction of top prospect, Paulo Costa which would speak to Adesanya’s chances at a successful defence Saturday night.
Where one title would suffice for a UFC event, 263 is somewhat a blessing in that it provides not only a highly anticipated rematch for the Middleweight title but also a rematch of what many consider the 2020 Fight of the Year, the Flyweight title contest between Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno and Flyweight champ Deiveson “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo.
In a fight that put the Flyweight division back on the map, Moreno and Figueiredo fought to a majority draw. While it was an amazing fight from both competitors, it is difficult to forget the reason that their last fight was a majority draw, an illegal strike from the champion which resulted in a one-point deduction. So then, if Figueiredo can maintain his powerful standup and stay away from illegal strikes, a successful defence seems likely.
Also on the card, #3 Welterweight Leon “Rocky” Edwards puts his rank on the line against the originator of the BMF championship, Nate Diaz, in a first for the UFC: a 5 round bout in the non-main event slot. This fight comes as a major, but welcome, surprise to the welterweight division with the possibility to shift the entire landscape of the division’s rankings.
This card marks Diaz’s first fight in the UFC since his doctor stoppage loss to BMF champion, Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal. For Diaz, this bout is a chance to come back from a defeat that many felt would prevent the Stockton native from achieving success in the top 5 of the welterweight division. Looking at his record, Diaz is currently 3-3 in his last 6. With Diaz recently turning 36, and Usman’s recent dominant performance against the man who bloodied Diaz, this fight is undoubtedly his last chance to break into UFC title contention.
Meanwhile, for Edwards, this bout takes form as a test of his skills due in large part to the near-two year layoff faced by “Rocky,” which was extended numerous times because of complications with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Edwards is, in many ways, still looking to properly come off of that layoff as his last bout, against up and comer Belal Muhammad ended in controversial fashion, with a No Contest result due to an accidental eyepoke from Edwards in the second round. This left Muhammad unable to continue. This result came as a disappointment to MMA fans universally, but none likely felt the disappointment more than Edwards himself. Despite the disappointing finish, however, Edwards called for a title shot in the post-fight, citing his performance up to the eye poke as proof enough of his ability. It should come as no surprise, though, that the UFC itself felt differently about Edwards’s performance and instead opted to book the UFC 261 main event, Usman V. Masvidal II. This again left Edwards in the proverbial no-man’s land of the Welterweight division, and no fighter picks his opponents more strategically than Nathan Diaz.
When it comes to choosing a winner for the co-main, there is absolutely a reason Edwards opened as a favourite; with such a well-rounded skill set it is hard to bet against an undoubtedly motivated Edwards. Opening as an underdog, Diaz certainly holds value in that he is one of the most dangerous fighters that can be found when it comes to 5 round fights. Ultimately, though, an Edwards win by decision seems most likely. This can be confirmed when looking at each of the fighters’ records, with most of Edwards’s wins coming by way of decision and the same being true of Diaz’s losses. It is important to remember, though, one can never truly count out a Diaz brother.
UFC 263 streams live on ESPN+, June 12th, starting at the usual, 10 PM, EST.