After the final rush of Iowa polls, we finally have the last LeanTossup Iowa Average, and the final results of the LeanTossup Model’s simulations. Bernie Sanders leads by 4.3% over Joe Biden, with Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren falling back in a near tie. In terms of chances of winning, Sanders leads with a 55.6% chance of winning, with Biden trailing behind at 22.9%.

With the LeanTossup model in place for tonight, I’m of the firm belief that the Iowa caucuses are Bernie Sanders’ to lose. As of the last fourteen days in both Iowa and New Hampshire Sanders has seen his support among Democratic primary voters rise, giving him a strong lead in New Hampshire and a comfortable enough lead in Iowa. However, I believe one factor will be the sole determinant as to whether or not Sanders does run away with Iowa and that’s turnout.

If youth come out to caucus for Sanders, then my initial gut feeling that he will win tonight stands firm. Yet if youth turnout isn’t strong and the caucuses are shifted towards older voters then Joe Biden (or, even, Mayor Pete) may very well edge out a win tonight. Given recent news that Iowa caucus turnout is expected to exceed 2016 by many margins, it may bode well for Sanders.

Polling USA will be live-tweeting the results as they come in and LeanTossup will be breaking down the events of tonight’s vote in a podcast this week, so stay tuned. Whatever the result, things will look very different soon enough – and we will be here to walk everyone through it.